/6/10 · European Central Bank Preview: Forecasts from 13 major banks. The European Central Bank is expected to leave its current bond-buying program unchanged at a total scope of EUR trillion yet speculation is rife about the current pace of purchases. The ECB releases its decision at GMT while ECB President Christine Lagarde begins her press /10/7 · That said, whilst Q3 was still a tough quarter, indications are that it has been better than Q2. Economic trends are improving, and impairment charges are not happening at the rate forecast in the prior quarter. Expectations: EPS $ on revenue $ blogger.comted Reading Time: 8 mins Bank of Canada Metals and Mineral index has risen % in the last 12 months – the largest month gain in almost 10 years – to its highest since the end of The impact on the Canadian economy has been dramatic. We argued in our March Forex thatFile Size: KB
Forecast of Saxo Bank Q3: The bond market - the heart of the European revolution
The bond market will be the beating heart of the European revolution. Harmonizing financing costs across the euro area and a common fiscal budget will be key to building a much better monetary union. The pace of this change will further accelerate the election of the new government German and the issuance of Community solidarity bonds under the NextGenerationEU NGEU fund.
Althea Spinozzi, Marketing Manager, Saxo Bank. She joined the group Saxo Bank in Althea conducts research on fixed income instruments and works directly with clients to help them select and trade bonds.
Due to his expertise in leveraged debt, he focuses particularly on high yield and corporate bonds with an attractive risk-to-return ratio, bank forex forecast q3. This revolution began last year after the conclusion of the agreement on the NGEU fund by the member states.
Under this program, the euro area will issue joint solidarity bonds financed by area-wide taxes on a much larger scale than ever before.
This program will contribute to the leveling of financial conditions across the euro area as part of bank forex forecast q3 Deep Monetary Union. The elections in Germany will accelerate the in-depth change initiated by the NGEU fund. According to the latest polls, representatives of the Green Party are likely to be members of the future government of the Federal Republic of Germany; perhaps they will even chair Cabinet deliberations.
The campaign of the Green Party focuses on the need to increase fiscal spending and strengthen European integration, bank forex forecast q3. This policy translates directly into higher yields on German government bonds and a reduction in spreads throughout the euro area.
Both the NGEU fund and the elections in Germany are signals that the number of green investments will increase in the future. However, this share may only increase in the future. Demand for instruments that take into account economic, social and corporate governance issues Environmental, Social, and Corporate GovernanceESG already exceeds supply today.
Their popularity will grow as ESG regulations are introduced around the world and investors are becoming more aware of the importance of these aspects. On the one hand, the solid performance of green bonds compared to traditional instruments encourages investors to increase their exposure to ESG instruments. On the other hand, the bank forex forecast q3 horizon of such investments appeals to policy makers as it contributes to sustainable and inclusive growth. Debtors show bank forex forecast q3 in the possibility of issuing green bonds as this may lower the cost of capital.
In fact, the premium paid under these bonds the so-called greenium is currently -2 to -6 basis points; the negative premium reflects the deficit of these instruments. At the same time, bank forex forecast q3, some countries, such as Spain, have not yet entered the green market, bank forex forecast q3.
The data shows that governments need to do even more to meet the ever-increasing demand for green bonds. Until the German elections, bank forex forecast q3, it can be expected that European government bonds will behave in the same way as it has been since the beginning of this year.
They will be sensitive to profitability growth US treasury bonds and talks on limiting asset purchases on both sides of the Atlantic.
Such talks matter much more to the United States than to Europe. However, they will affect US government bonds, pushing up yields in the euro area as well, as the correlation between German and US government bonds remains positive. At the same time, bank forex forecast q3, we predict that EBC will maintain its soft stance until fall as demand for European government bonds remains subdued despite continued support.
The last issue of German 1,7-year treasury bonds turned out to be a technical error. The German financial agency Finanzagentur GmbH has allocated only EUR 2,5 billion out of the target amount of EUR XNUMX billion.
Investing in German government bonds with near-zero yields is dangerous due to the inflationary environment. Investors are also deterred by the fact that ten-year US treasury bank forex forecast q3 backed against the euro with a three-month forward rate offer higher yields than most European government bonds, bank forex forecast q3.
Check it out: How to invest in German government bonds [Guide], bank forex forecast q3. In this context, the withdrawal of support is unprofitable for the ECB as it could seriously hamper the refinancing operations of ordinary debt of the Member States. The central bank is therefore likely to wait until the elections in Germany before modifying its monetary policy.
In order to put the ten-year German government bond yield trend in context, it is worth looking at the key technical levels. In May, the 0,year bond yields fell from their two-year highs. However, the long-term trend for German government bonds is for continued growth, coupled with improved economic outlook and inflation pressures.
Therefore, although the ECB will maintain its easing monetary policy, bank forex forecast q3, it is unlikely that yields will remain negative in the long run. European bond yields can only increase in the context of the elections in Germany, the increasingly better economic outlook for Europe and the stimulus provided by the EU's recovery fund. Although the new German government is likely to move away from the austerity regime, the NGEU fund will eliminate some inequalities between individual countries.
The incentives provided by this fund will offset the risk on government bonds and will reduce spreads compared to German bonds. Improving macroeconomic outlooks will also play a key role in increasing profitability as the economy will recover and inflationary pressures will force the ECB to consider "a slight reduction in asset purchases" by the end of this year or early next year. This will happen in a situation where reflation transactions will not reappear until the time of the elections in Germany.
Under this scenario, yields will follow a sideline on bank forex forecast q3 sides of the Atlantic. Such a scenario will take place if the pace of talks in the United States on limiting asset purchases accelerates in the summer, which will push up the bank forex forecast q3 on US treasury bonds. Thus, the yields on German bonds may turn positive even bank forex forecast q3 the elections in Germany. However, positive German government bond yields would mean that European government bond yields would also have to increase.
To better understand the future shape of the European government bond market, it is worth looking at Italy, where government bonds are offering the highest yields in the euro area at the time of writing this article.
Since the beginning of this year, the spread of Italian and German government bonds has been in the range of basis points. When Mario Draghi became Prime Minister of Italy, the spread narrowed to the smallest since However, after the reopening of the economy, it widened beyond basis points. In the short term, this spread may widen due to divergences in the economic recovery and downward sentiment amid increased volatility in the bond market. In the long run, however, we expect the spread to narrow significantly and stabilize around 75bps.
We anticipate that the bank forex forecast q3 of the spread may be much greater for BTP compared to other European bonds due to the stable political environment provided by Draghi and the payouts from the NGEU fund, with Italy as the biggest beneficiary. The noticeable improvement in the risk level will contribute to an increase in demand among investors who will find the opportunity to sell German Treasury bonds to replace them with papers with higher yields.
Although the narrowing of the spread bank forex forecast q3 strengthen the BTP, it will take place when the yields on German government bonds increase.
All in all, Italian debt will also suffer losses in the context of rising German bond yields. However, Italian government bonds will be more resilient compared to bonds of other countries. It can be expected that the narrowing of spreads will be a less of a leitmotif for other European government bonds. Worryingly, the ultra-low yields offered by other European government bonds expose investors to significant losses.
For comparison, in the case of BTP, this loss would be imperceptible if the spread fell to 75 basis points in the context of rising German bond yields. The key issue in this case is the need to create a buffer against an increase in interest rates.
Treasury bonds with lower yields of such security will not provide and bank forex forecast q3 expose the investor's portfolio to the interest rate risk. Economic calendar MetaTrader Web Forum Contact Polski. English Deutsch Français Português Español Polski.
Login Sign Up. Sign in Register. you have to see. Read: Forex market - what is it? Read: Types of Forex brokers - ECN, STP, MM. Read: Bitcoin - The most important information.
Read: CFDs - description and characteristics. Read: MTF stock market model from LMAX Exchange. Popular posts. Binary options banned in the EU from 1 on July Forex Forex About Forex About Forex Execution models Execution models CFDs CFDs binary Options binary Options Bitcoin Bitcoin.
DAX - Trading broker on the DAX 30 index - with Brokers Brokers XTB XTB IC Markets IC Markets Admiral Markets Admiral Markets AvaTrade AvaTrade Capital. com Capital. com Tickmill Tickmill Dukascopy Dukascopy FxPro FxPro LMAX LMAX Saxo Bank Saxo Bank Forex brokers list Forex brokers list. Read more. Read: A year ago, crude oil was headed towards the bottom and below! What has this taught us? Read: US Treasury Bonds: A Ticking Bomb.
Read: We summarize the Forex Club analyzes for the second half of Read: Joe Biden's ten political priorities. Read: Allbright Financial, a dating and overdraft site bank forex forecast q3 your MetaTrader 5 bank forex forecast q3. Bitcoin Scam - Watch Out For These Companies!
List of 48 entities. Read: Bitcoin Trading - is it actually profitable? We will have low interest rates and high inflation. Read: Dirty plays by brokers - TOP 5. Maxitrade - how to recover funds? News News News News Events Events Contests and promotions Contests and promotions Bank forex forecast q3 List Warning List. New features on the 5 xStation platform [June ] Pip Value Calculator, or how much is 1 pip worth? Read: Forex Club program - Tax version 7.
Weekly Forex Forecast June 28 - June 2 2021
, time: 28:46Bank of Korea Preview: Forecast from five major banks
/7/24 · The Bank of America Global Research (BofA) is out with its revised outlook on the EUR/USD pair, now expecting the major to reach in the Q3 and by Author: Dhwani Mehta Bank of Canada Metals and Mineral index has risen % in the last 12 months – the largest month gain in almost 10 years – to its highest since the end of The impact on the Canadian economy has been dramatic. We argued in our March Forex thatFile Size: KB /6/30 · Economic calendar
No comments:
Post a Comment